Central Ohio's population growth is expected to continue, but births are no longer the main driver, according to a new MORPC forecast. The 15-county region around Franklin County added 116,900 residents since the April 2020 Census despite a falling birth rate. Deaths are projected to exceed births around 2040.
International migration now supplies 96% of the region's net migration, including 68,113 residents from other countries; moves from elsewhere in the U.S. make up the rest. MORPC's estimate for 2055 ranges from 2.7 million to 3.12 million residents, a difference of about 420,000. Executive Director William Murdock said that range is grounded in data and more useful for planning than projections of extreme growth or loss.
The forecast is meant to help policymakers and businesses plan workforce, housing, education and transportation needs as employers such as Honda, Anduril and data centers expand. MORPC says infrastructure planning guides billions of dollars in transportation decisions. A recent survey suggests 38% of central Ohioans cannot find affordable housing.
Economist Bill LaFayette said global growth is slowing; the United Nations projects a population peak around 2080 at roughly 10 billion. Adam Porr, MORPC's assistant director for data projection, said the region must pursue migration strategies regardless of whether newcomers come from abroad or elsewhere in the U.S.